Saturday, December 27, 2008

The Best Movie Quote/ Dialogue of 2008

"Do I really look like a man with a plan, Harvey? I don't have a plan. The mob has plans, the cops have plans. You know what I am, Harvey? I'm a dog chasing cars. I wouldn't know what to do if I caught one. I just *do* things. I'm a wrench in the gears. I *hate* plans. Yours, theirs, everyone's. Maroni has plans. Gordon has plans. Schemers trying to control their worlds. I am not a schemer. I show schemers how pathetic their attempts to control things really are. So when I say that what happened to you and your girlfriend wasn't personal, you know I'm telling the truth. It's a schemer who put you where you are. You were a schemer. You had plans. Look where it got you. I just did what I do best-I took your plan and turned it on itself. Look what I have done to this city with a few drums of gas and a couple bullets. Nobody panics when the expected people get killed. Nobody panics when things go according to plan, even if the plans are horrifying. If I tell the press that tomorrow a gangbanger will get shot, or a truckload of soldiers will get blown up, nobody panics. But when I say one little old mayor will die, everyone loses their minds! Introduce a little anarchy, you upset the established order, and everything becomes chaos. I am an agent of chaos. And you know the thing about chaos, Harvey? It's fair.

” The Joker in "The Dark Knight"

Monday, December 8, 2008

Financial Crisis - Dont worry, Greed will Prevail

Global financial meltdown - Three words that in all likelihood conjures up the most frightening monster the world has known. This monster is taking away all the things that we cherish, directly or indirectly. First there is a pay freeze, then there is a pay cut and if that was not enough there goes our job. With that goes our 'discretionary' spending capacity, our willingness to buy things that makes our miserable lives slightly bearable, our self esteem. The factories close down, industries vanish and social unrest begins. In the midst of all this, nations along with their policy makers are left scratching their heads. Question: Our goose is cooked...right?.....Wrong!!!

I have a simple solution to this. Forget about it...Dont worry, cause this is not going to last long.

Am i mad. Oh yes,well i am...but i am also sane enough to believe that these so called experts who are telling you that the financial world - thus in every sense the real world - has come to an end are lying or to put it more subtly, not telling you the whole truth . Hopefully being a layman, i will try to tell you exactly why i believe that this crisis is infact going to turn around very quickly.

Let me start with simple process flow. I go to work everyday and earn a salary every month. Some part of this salary goes to buy necessary and other products, some goes into savings like Cash, equity (shares, bonds, MF's), Commodities etc, mostly to a bank. Now the place where i am working makes a product and sells it to the consumer to generate revenue and hopefully profits. Again this money is split into buying important raw materials etc, paying bonuses & dividends and saving it in a bank. The bank gets this money and pays interest to the consumer or the corporate who has deposited the money. If my company is doing well, it takes a lon from the bank and carries out expansion plans - increase manpower, get more machines, etc - and from its increased profit pays off the debt. Since the bank needs to make money too, it charges an interest higher than what it has paid for the money and this becomes the profit (after overheads). This way the cycle keeps moving.

Now for some economics. Demand and Supply. Classical theory of economics states that if the demand goes up - the supply remaining constant - prices go up too. This is true for Oil, most precious metals, etc. For other goods, if the prices are higher, then the consumer might shift to substitutes so organizations in an effort to make more profit do not increase the prices. Instead, they increase their capacity to produce goods at almost the same rate as the demand moves up. This creates new expansion plans, new jobs, and hence again the above mentioned cycle continues.

Now to make the explanation clearer lets figure some connections:
  • If the companies/ individuals do not earn money they have less to save
  • If the banks get less money, they give out less money and hence make less money
  • If there is less money for people to spend, they either buy cheaper substitutes or not buy at all
  • If the consumer does not buy, the companies do not make money and expansions go for a toss
  • If expansions do not happen/ new companies do not come up, the industry slows down
  • If the industry slows down, the governments have less taxes to collect and lesser budgets
  • If budgets are lesser, social spending decreases
  • If social spending decreases, the unrest begins
Now the impact for the stakeholders:
  • Since banks are making losses/ 'not enough' profit, shareholders get angry & CEO has to go
  • Since other organizations are making losses/ 'not enough' profit, shareholders get angry & CEO has to go
  • Above corollary is that shareholders are also losing money
  • Since countries are not making money and hence people are suffering, governments will lose their votebanks
  • Infact due to the extreme lowering of oil prices, terrorists are also not going to have much money since their masters purse strings might just be running on empty
  • and hence due to all the above except one....the individual loses
Hopefully, you get my drift. This is just not going to happen. Rich individuals/ corporations/ governments can take the fallout for sometime but sooner or later they will realise that there is just no other way to come out of this but to make profits. Also since the world today is extremely connected (take the example of terrorists - US does not buy oil due to recession and terrorists have lesser money for spreading hate) and mind you this is an extremely delicate connection, making profits is not easy unless the entire global machinery is greased. This grease comes from banking organizations and consumers who will spend the money thay they generate. And banks will spend once they are aware that if they dont, they are the ones who lose the most. They own the money and they need to pay the interest.

I can tell you this and much more in complicated jargon but it all boils down to this. Yes, for a short time (my bet is 6-12 months) things are going to be nasty. But this is just a blip. This can never be the great depression part 2 since the economies are not isolated and global linkages will play its own hand. We have probably seen the worst and things will - hopefully - seem better very very soon. It was greed that got us here and it will be Greed that will get us out of here...

Monday, December 1, 2008

Is Baar Nahin - Prasoon Joshi

Lyricist Prasoon Joshi has written this poem after the Mumbai terror attacks. Says the ad guru and film lyricist, "I believe it should reach as many people as possible because it is our collective pain and voice".

Is baar nahin

Is baar jab woh choti si bachchi mere paas apni kharonch le kar aayegi
Main usey phoo phoo kar nahin behlaoonga
Panapney doonga uski tees ko
Is baar nahin

Is baar jab main chehron par dard likha dekhoonga
Nahin gaoonga geet peeda bhula dene wale
Dard ko risney doonga,utarney doonga andar gehrey
Is baar nahin

Is baar main na marham lagaoonga
Na hi uthaoonga rui ke phahey
Aur na hi kahoonga ki tum aankein band karlo,gardan udhar kar lo main dawa lagata hoon
Dekhney doonga sabko hum sabko khuley nangey ghaav
Is baar nahin

Is baar jab uljhaney dekhoonga,chatpatahat dekhoonga
Nahin daudoonga uljhee door lapetney
Uljhaney doonga jab tak ulajh sake
Is baar nahin

Is baar karm ka hawala de kar nahin uthaoonga auzaar
Nahin karoonga phir se ek nayee shuruaat
Nahin banoonga misaal ek karmyogi ki
Nahin aaney doonga zindagi ko aasani se patri par
Utarney doonga usey keechad main,tedhey medhey raston pe
Nahin sookhney doonga deewaron par laga khoon
Halka nahin padney doonga uska rang
Is baar nahin banney doonga usey itna laachaar
Ki paan ki peek aur khoon ka fark hi khatm ho jaye
Is baar nahin

Is baar ghawon ko dekhna hai
Gaur se
Thoda lambe wakt tak
Kuch faisley
Aur uskey baad hausley
Kahin toh shuruat karni hi hogi
Is baar yahi tay kiya hai

... Prasoon Joshi